Hurricane Prediction: Active Season Coming

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season should be very active with 16 named storms expected with at least one storm making landfall in the United States, according to the annual hurricane forecast by Colorado State University. The traditional Atlantic storm season runs from June through November, and there is an about 70 percent chance at least one storm will strike the U.S. coast versus the long-term average of about a 52 percent chance of a storm making landfall in the United States, according to Colorado State University forecasters. Warm Atlantic Ocean waters and a relatively cool Pacific Ocean should prove conducive for storm creation. "We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, will contribute to an active season," said Colorado State University professor Phil Klotzbach. The Colorado State University forecasting team last year predicted a total of 18 tropical storms forming in the Atlantic basin with 10 expected to grow into hurricanes and five into "major" hurricanes with wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The research team calculated a 76 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the United States. The average probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United State was 52 percent during the 20th Century, according to the Colorado State University research team. More specifically, the research team estimated an about 51 percent chance of a hurricane landing along the Eastern Seaboard, including all of Florida, and the Gulf Coast, respectively. While the 2011 storm season is expected to be a busy one, it could be as forgiving as last year. The 2010 Atlantic storm season was one of the busiest on record, but it also was one of the quietest in the United States, according to federal climate officials. Last year's hurricane season officially produced 19 named storms, including 12 hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Of the dozen hurricanes, five reached "major" status with sustained wind speeds of more than 155 m.p.h. and capable of inflicting a great deal of destruction. But aside from casualties caused by localized flooding in Mexico and parts of Texas, relatively little damage was done. The 19 named storms in 2010 were the third most ever recorded and the dozen hurricanes the second most, according to federal forecasters. Fortunately, no storms made a direct hit on the United States or seriously disrupted oil recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico while workers for the BP corporation labored to gain control of the undersea oil gusher triggered by a deadly explosion on April 20.